sunset

the tree looks cold in the early morning light

leaves turning

the first, two day storm of autumn. deposited some snow, hail, rain. then was gone again. the trees hardly lost any of their leaves, while the wind was kracht 8, 9 at times with gusts much stronger.

outside the creche on the lozerlaan

drop of water

some trees are stark against the sky, some are grimly holding on to the last leaves...

witch tree

awesome autumn colours!

i cannot believe there is still so much colour on the trees, beginning december!

water under the bridge

reflections in the sloot outside of landgoed te werve

bridge

duckie!

beginning december, most trees are leaved, some still green(ish) 

Our heater, the ocean conveyor belt, is stuttering

This scenario was the beginning of the disaster movie The Day After Tomorrow. Now, no serious climate scientist will say this scenario is about to happen... it isnt. But a 30% drop over a relatively short period (since 1998!!!), unexpected by most of the modern climate models, has the oceanographic world in a twitter. The researchers themselves called this "deeply alarming" and if you know anything about scientists who hum and ha and hedge, that is like a nuclear reaction!
If this is not an anomaly -and it's not just one or two measurements so doubtful it would be- we could in the event of a total shutdown, be looking at a temperature decrease of on average 4 - 6 deg C in this part of the world (the heat transport to europe has already decreased by 15%) which would be unpleasant, to say the least... especially now that energy is becoming more and more expensive. A trend that wont ever be reversing by the looks of it.

This does not mean that global warming stops, this simply means that we might end up with the climate we would have had without the warm waters of the gulf stream warming us up. (it's not the only driver of our pleasant climate but one of the big ones)

You know, I'm not one to go off the deep - I've learned over the years that it does no good at all. It's not collapsed, yet. YET. But I am concerned. As far as I understand the mechanisms playing here, adding it to the measured and observed events over these past years, we might be heading towards a deep mess relatively soon...

I hope, I HOPE lots of money will be coughed up so there can be a really extensive survey, to properly chart the severity and extent of this change so we can prepare for it.

PS if you feel inclined to do something,
you might want to look here, there are demo's planned for dec 3 worldwide because of the UNclimate talks in Montreal:
http://www.globalclimatecampaign.org/

Atlantic currents show signs of weakening
Research cruise reveals evidence of half-century of wane.

Quirin Schiermeier

The North Atlantic's natural heating system, which brings clement weather to western Europe, is showing signs of decline. Scientists report that warm Atlantic Ocean currents, which carry heat from the tropics to high latitudes, have substantially weakened over the past 50 years.

Oceanographers surveying the 'Atlantic meridional overturning circulation', the current system that includes the warm Gulf Stream current, report that it seems to be 30% weaker than half a century ago.

Failures of the Atlantic Ocean's circulation system are thought to have been responsible for abrupt and extreme climate changes during the ice age that lasted from 110,000 to 23,000 years ago. More recently, a fictional shutdown of the Gulf Stream inspired the 2004 Hollywood blockbuster The Day after Tomorrow.

The climate shifts depicted in the movie, in which New York is engulfed by an instant ice age, are mere fancy. But scientists are worried about the real changes measured in the North Atlantic. Both salinity and water density, which influence the transport of warm waters, have previously been found to be decreasing.

Stuck in a loop

The likely cause is more fresh water flowing into the ocean from rivers, rain and melting ice, and this is thought to be linked to global warming. But climate modellers are worried that the resulting weakening of ocean currents could ultimately lead to substantial cooling of the North Atlantic.

The team behind the new study are the first to spot these signs of decline in Atlantic currents. Harry Bryden of the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, UK, and his team report their results in this week's Nature1.

During a cruise in spring 2004 from the Bahamas to the Canary Islands, on board the British research vessel RRS Discovery, the team measured water temperature and salinity along a latitude of 25º North, taking samples roughly every 50 kilometres. They then calculated from the density and pressure differences between each sample, the volume and velocity of the circulation at various depths, assuming that from coast to coast the balance of water flowing north and south must be zero.

Similar measurements along the same latitude were previously made in 1957, 1981, 1992 and 1998. But until now, the data never showed any significant decline in circulation. "In 1998 we saw only very small changes," says Bryden. "I was about to give up on the problem."

However, this time things were very different. The near-surface, and mostly wind-driven, Gulf Stream has remained almost constant since 1957. But the deep-ocean return flow of cooler water has decreased dramatically. This cycle usually returns water to more southerly latitudes from as far north as Greenland and Scandinavia.

But much of this water now seems to be trapped in a loop in the subtropical Atlantic, instead of cycling all the way to the ocean's northern extremity. Bryden and his colleagues estimate that, overall, the circulation has slowed by about 30% since 1957.

"This is quite sensational information in itself," says Detlef Quadfasel, an oceanographer at the University of Hamburg in Germany. "But it is also an important message to politicians who negotiate the future of the Kyoto agreements: we do change our climate."

A direct impact of the weakening circulation on air temperatures in western Europe has so far not been observed. Average temperatures have increased by around 0.6 ºC since 1900. Whether or not the true warming is partly eclipsed by an opposite oceanic cooling trend is not clear, says Quadfasel.

A long-term trend?

Other oceanographers warn that this is not proof of a long-term trend. Possible disturbances such as ocean eddies, and natural fluctuations in the strength of the circulation system, must be considered, they say.

"Something is clearly going on," says Jochem Marotzke, an oceanographer at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. "But we still have only a series of snapshots. The crux is to determine how representative they really are." He adds that the chances of imminent collapse of the circulation system is small.

Sensor-equipped moorings installed at 25 locations across the subtropical Atlantic have now begun to monitor continuously the circulation at all depths. The next four years or so should tell us whether the Atlantic heating system is still working well, says Marotzke.

I do not like this at all!!!

This never was the intention of the EU, to morph us all into a United States of Europe??!!
I do not agree with this at all, I dont believe this should be happening at all.

I'm not too big to admit I've made a mistake...
All these years I was pro-EU, promoting it, encouraging others to see things my way.
Had the EU remained true to their original charter, had they not overstepped their bounds, had the right not gained firm foothold there I might still be saying so.

But, not any more.
These past years have been shock after shock.


no, No, NO!!!!!!!!
I think it is time we stepped out of the EU.

Commission stakes new claim in European criminal law
25.11.2005 - 09:29 CET | By Teresa Küchler

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - A new European commission claim to have the right to tell member states to impose criminal sanctions for offences against EU law may meet resistance, as member states are not keen on losing powers to Brussels.

The commission on Wednesday (23 November) presented a list of seven areas of EU legislation in which it wishes to have further powers in the area of criminal law, covering money laundering, computer-related crimes, maritime pollution, corruption, human trafficking and euro and bank card counterfeiting.

Minimal sentences for offences against EU law set by the commission must be enforced in member states' legal systems, with countries that fail to implement this liable to be taken to court by the commission, a commission official said.

In September, a landmark ruling by the European Court of Justice ruled in favor of the commission and the European Parliament - but against member states - in a case involving infringements of EU environmental law.

The European Court of Justice ruling stated that it is up to the commission to decide on penal measures, in order for community legislation to be effective.

"The court strengthens the possibilities to enforce the law, once member states have agreed on a European policy. This is a watershed decision," commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said in reaction to the September decision.

Member states fear losing sovereignty
In its interpretation of the September ruling, the commission on Wednesday said that it has the right to lay down minimal sentences for offences against EU legislation in areas other than the environment.

There are so-called framework decisions surrounding all seven areas, with the commission hoping for a simple and fast procedure to have the very same texts adopted as directives, which would be decided upon by all three EU institutions rather than national governments.

The ruling means that, for the first time in legal history, a member state government will no longer have the sovereign right to decide what constitutes a crime and what the punishment should be.

The ruling is sure to meet with a fight. Several member states, including Germany, France and the UK, opposed the commission already in 2001 when it proposed that certain breaches of environment law be deemed criminal offences.

"Many EU countries, including Britain, are vigorously opposed to the commission's intrusion into criminal law. Far from being a shot in the arm for EU democracy, this is a serious blow to our right to decide these matters for ourselves," conservative British MEP Timothy Kirkhope said.

A commission official indicated that defining crimes has not always been up to member states alone, however: "There are already certain harmonisations between EU member states regarding cross-border related crimes, for instance."

She also underlined that for every area of criminal legislation to be put under community competence, the commission would have to prove the "absolute necessity" of the move.

Commission officials will set tests to decide if an offence is civil, administrative or criminal.

rose 

Heaven!

 
An old picture but so very good. The old man, resting his eyes... 

cute little dutch house 

very interesting effect, this is kelly running - i am sure i can do this again but better. 

more bark closeup, it almost looks tribal 

weiland 

a tired kelly girl 

changing colour 

autumn 

bark closeup